03 November 2018

Climate Change Skeptic's Manifesto

Whenever I discuss "climate change" with a true believer, I run into many problems and have to constantly repeat myself, admit points that I'd never argued against in the first place, and basically struggle to make the believer understand what I'm trying to explain.  And, usually in vain.

I like to refer to "climate change" as the theory of catastrophic, anthropogenic, global warming.  We need to be precise.  ...  We also need something short and pronounceable, so I will refer to it henceforth as "CAGWa".

The problem with most CAGWa believers is that they have a narrative which says that all skeptics are either industry shills or anti-scientific morons -- or both.  (This can be highly amusing when the believer knows less science than does the skeptic.  :)  )  The result is the CAGWa believer repeatedly returning to basic and largely irrelevant scientific assertions.  For example, "Global temperatures have risen in recent decades!" or "Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are rising!"

That is the purpose this manifesto.  To list the basic facts on which, I believe, most reasonable people on both sides of the debate can agree.  And, also to begin the explanation of why the basic facts in no way require the conclusion that CAGWa is underway and a serious threat to mankind.  I hope that if you (dare to) debate the issue of CAGWa, that this manifesto can be a time-saving starting point for you.

1. I agree that carbon dioxide (CO
2
) is a greenhouse gas.  This means that it retains more heat than the average heat retention of the current mix of gases in the atmosphere.


2. I agree that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have been rising steadily in recent decades and that that rise is almost certainly the direct result of human industrial activity.

3. The simple result of points 1 and 2 -- if we ignore other factors -- is that the earth's temperature would have to be higher now than it otherwise would have been without the increased carbon dioxide levels.

4. I agree that the overall trend of average global temperatures has been one of rising temperatures in recent decades.

... BUT ...

5. The observed rise in temperatures over the last century are not at all unusual when compared to the long term temperature record.  (See "Globaloney".) ...  Simply put, the 19th century was too cold!  The 20th century appears to be nothing more than a reversion to the mean.

6. We cannot, in fact, ignore other factors as we said in point 3.  The earth's climate is a complex, dynamic, non-linear system being driven by a large number of factors including feedback mechanisms.  

7. A guaranteed, simple result -- as in point number 3 -- does not mean that the impact is significant.  As a simple example, if I poured a large, boiling hot pot of coffee into a swimming pool, the average temperature of the water in that swimming pool would become higher.  But, it doesn't follow that the people swimming in the swimming pool would ever know the difference.

8. Many of the large driving factors in earth's temperature and climate are beyond our ability to either predict or control.

9. Warmer temperatures, regardless of the cause, are not necessarily a net negative for human life on earth.  ...  This is really a separate debate, but there are excellent arguments that warmer temperatures can be a net benefit to humanity.

Seems like this ought to quickly end the liberal panic over CAGWa.  I really don't think that there is anything debatable here.  Except number 9, though indirectly.  If you believe that there is a single other point here that is not bullet-proof, please comment.  ...  As this is a manifesto, I may well update or expand upon it in the future.  Thanks.

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